Delhi‐NCR Realty Growth Trajectory All Set to Emulate Early‐90s and 2004‐05 Path

  • End‐users take over the market; Buck the trend of last two decades

  • Current ratio almost at 85:15; Gap to widen further

  • Festive sales breach 2014 peak; indicate a sharp V‐shaped recovery

  • The end‐user dominance of Delhi‐NCR market indicates RE growth trajectory set to emulate early‐90s and 2004‐05 growth path

A close look at this year’s festive trends in Delhi‐NCR indicate a sharp V‐shaped recovery for real estate in Delhi‐NCR. The post pandemic furious action in the recent festive season, coupled with steady post‐pandemic changes in the Delhi‐NCR market, clearly points to a great Real Estate (RE) resurgence that Delhi‐NCR region is readying for. On the back of largely three key developments (end‐user taking over the market, pandemic‐induced lifestyle changes and the sales numbers in the festive this year), the real estate market which has already touched the 2014 peak, is all set to emulate the early 90s and the 2004‐05 growth trajectory.

While the pre‐pandemic market saw investors playing a dominant role, post‐pandemic sentiment has brought back the change in the trend with the end‐users taking the grip over the market right back. The last time the region witnessed such end‐user dominance was in 2004‐05, when the ratio between end‐users and investors touched 90:10. Interestingly, prior to 2004‐05 period, such dominance was seen in early‐90s on the back of the economic reforms. All key parameters indicate that the grip of the end‐user is going to further strengthen over the next three-year period, and is well on its way to touching a 90:10 ratio. This means that the cyclical trend that kicked off on the back of a similar ratio in early 90s and 2004‐05 comes back into play, and is expected to drive a phenomenal growth, along the same lines. “The sharp V‐shaped recovery that Delhi‐NCR market is witnessing indicates good times ahead for Real Estate sector. The near‐total end‐user dominance in the RE market is going to once again kick‐off the aggressive, and very welcome, growth cycles seen in the past. The pandemic‐induced slow down seems to be a thing of the past and the Delhi‐NCR market seems to be readying to ride the tail‐winds on to a new high,” says Vishesh Prakash, R&R by RISE Infra.

The early indicators of a strong V‐shaped recovery are evident in the sales numbers that have happened during the current festive season. Nationally, the sector has breached the 2014 numbers when the top 7 cities sold around 3.4 lakh units; and is currently sitting at around 3.7 lakh units in the same markets. Delhi‐NCR has played a vital role in making this growth happen. Till festive, this year, the number stands at 51,864 units, and is expected to grow rapidly over the next few years. Delhi NCR saw a sale of over 50k units till Q3, up by 170 per cent as compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, Delhi NCRs market sentiments in terms of demand that got padded up during the festive period, witnessed an increase in capital values of 5‐9 percent QoQ basis and 11‐16 percent on YoY basis in Q3.

The pandemic has also changed the profile of the end‐user. With concerns like work‐life balance, well‐being and changing world of work coming to the forefront for professionals and service class alike, there are newer concerns that are impacting the decision of home buyers now. This represents a major shift in the mind‐set of homebuyers, which is also largely responsible for the rapidly increasing numbers of end users deciding to buy or upgrade their homes, and thereby driving the growth.

YOLO(You‐Only‐Live‐Once)Index

  1. Closer to workplace: Among those who are looking at resuming full time working from office, 68% of home buyers are using being close to the work place as an essential parameter to either buy their first home or upgrade their property.

  2. Hybrid, work from home: 72% of those who are looking at a hybrid work arrangement going ahead, are looking at extra space at their home towards a dedicated workstation which affords them some level of privacy. This is both for first time home buyers and those looking to upgrade their existing home.

  3. Wellness quotient driving decisions: 82% of home buyers today are looking at parameters that not only improve the family’s quality of life but also safeguards them against another pandemic‐like event in the near future. Some of these parameters include facilities like club house, swimming pool, walking tracks, sporting facilities, etc.

RISE Infraventures Limited Reports

Research & Reports (R&R) By RISE Infra aims to create an ecosystem within RE Segment which is fact-based, Data Driven and analysis-laden. The emphasis at R&R by RISE Infra is on curating reports that track the trends on the ground and share key‐insights to benefit all stakeholders. R&R By RISE Infra is an independent research wing of Rise Infraventures Limited, With the vision to bring actual realty for buyers & sellers.

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